Tuesday, January 03, 2006

Containment by any other name....

I posted this on Belmont Club recently, but it has been a familiar theme of mine earlier.

The one 20th century model which may see resurrection in 2006 is that hoary old concept containment. Allow me to be so bold as to predict that, for the forseeable future, this will be the policy towards Iraq. Basing rights in Turkey, Oman, Iraq, etc. will be used to establish anti-missile defenses (remember, there is no ABM treaty with Iraq.). Although I speculate, certainly anti-ballistic missile technology has come a long way since the Patriot missiles of the 1991 Iraq War.

Following a policy of containment allows breathing space to position espionage assets within Iran via the porous borders with Iraq and Afghanistan. It gives diplomacy time to work. By temporally separating the Iraq conflict from any new conflict with Iran, domestic "selling" of any military intervention can proceed under the premise that it does not threaten strategic overreach of already overburdened U.S. military forces.

I now see this article by Christopher Hitchens that asks the question, If you want to know what the Bush administration policy is toward Iran, you will have to keep asking (and if you manage to find anything out, please let me know).

The policy is containment. Detente. What you do when a hostile power is aiming a gun at your temple, but you got some on his.

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